H1 2025 China BD Demand Review & Forecast

H1 2025 China BD Demand Review & Forecast

Introduction: In H1 2025, the increment in China’s butadiene supply was larger than that in demand. The support from fundamentals became weaker YoY. By late June, China’s butadiene consumption was around 2,640kt, up 12% YoY. China’s butadiene export volume was about 18kt, down 78% YoY, leading to weaker support for China’s butadiene price.

In H1 2025, China’s butadiene consumption continued to increase. According to SCI, China’s butadiene consumption was around 2,640kt, up 12% YoY. The capacity increase in the ABS industry was the most significant, and that in the synthetic rubber industry was mainly due to the commissioning of rubber units at Shandong Yulong Petrochemical. Other industries saw a limited capacity increase. The butadiene consumption by the four major downstream industries all rallied. In addition to the commissioning of new units in this downstream sector, the reduced maintenance intensity also led to an increase in the consumption of butadiene. However, for the other downstream industries, without the additional capacity provided by new units, the increase in butadiene consumption was limited. Due to the restriction on export demand, the consumption of butadiene in the NBL industry showed a slight decline YoY, resulting in an overall poor performance of the NBL industry.

The export volume crashed.

In H1 2025, China’s butadiene export volume plunged YoY. By June, most downstream enterprises in South Korea mainly purchased deep-sea cargoes, so their dependence on China’s butadiene resources dropped. Besides, within the year, affected by tepid end demand, the downstream operating rate in South Korea was lukewarm as well, so the increase in the consumption of butadiene was limited. China’s butadiene export volume faced headwinds in gaining, hardly boosting the trading atmosphere in China’s butadiene market.

In H2 2025, the demand may grow compared to H1 2025, but the increment in demand will probably be narrower than that in supply.

In 2025, affected by the complex and volatile international trade environment, export situations of China’s industries such as tires, rubber products, home appliances, and latex gloves have been challenging. Driven by weak end demand, the sales of most downstream industries of butadiene have been hindered. Moreover, downstream enterprises have been slow to raise their product prices, dragging down operating rates of butadiene and downstream industries. In H2 2025, the international environment may still face challenges. Without significant improvement in end demand, operating rates of butadiene downstream industries may remain low.

From the perspective of new capacity, in H2 2025, there may be some new capacity released in China’s downstream industries of butadiene. New downstream units covering PBR, SBR, and ABS may be mostly matched units for butadiene. Other downstream industries will probably not have matched upstream butadiene units. From the perspective of the downstream units’ commissioning date, most of the new downstream capacity is expected to be released in Q4 2025, which may lead to an increase in the consumption of butadiene.

From the perspective of units’ maintenance, the maintenance intensity of major downstream butadiene units may be lower compared to H1 2025. Thus, theoretically, the butadiene consumption is projected to keep rising. According to SCI, in H2 2025, the planned maintenance in the PBR industry is anticipated to be the most intensive. PBR units at Sinopec Yanshan Petrochemical Company, Sinopec Qilu Company, TSRC-UBE (Nantong) Chemical Industrial, Sinopec Maoming Company, Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical and Sinopec Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical will possibly experience turnarounds. The planned maintenance in other industries is likely to be limited. Nonetheless, in the later period, it is also necessary to pay attention to the changes in the startup and shutdown of downstream units that are likely to be influenced by the price spread between butadiene and its downstream products.

In terms of export, in H1 2025, China’s butadiene export volume remained low. With the replenishment of deep-sea cargoes, the butadiene demand from China’s neighboring countries was not high. In H2 2025, the butadiene resources from Southeast Asia and deep-sea cargoes may supplement the supply in Northeast Asia, restricting China’s butadiene export volume.

All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.